Five Key Factors in March Madness
One of the most popular sports events each year to bet on is March Madness. It is one of the most viewed sporting events in the world and everyone is clamoring over March Madness odds all month long. There are a few things to do to make sure that you have the edge when placing your bets. Take a look below at five things that you must think about before placing your bets or filling out your bracket; they are the key factors in march madness.
1. Look to go Against the Public
Most of the time, the general public loses. As a result, you want to be with the house rather than with the throng. The general public places wagers based on gut sense and prejudice, which is a long-term formula for disaster. If everyone is betting on Team A when you come into a pub, you should definitely have a ticket on Team B.
The ideal time of year to be a contrarian is during March Madness. The NCAA tournament generates a lot of hype and excitement, which attracts a lot of casual bettors. They haven’t bet all season, but they want to join in the fun now. The number of tickets sold has increased dramatically as a result of public betting flooding the market. This implies that the market is saturated with public prejudice, making going against the grain more valuable than ever.
Favorites, higher-ranked teams, well-known colleges, and teams with star players and superior records will almost likely attract the public’s attention. As a result, underdogs should be the focus of contrarian bettors. There’s also a sense of “madness” in the air, which makes underdogs more desirable because upsets are more often than in regular-season action. These X-factors among NCAA Tournament contenders can help you fill out your bracket
2. Keep an Eye out for Weird Lines
Focus on the least popular dogs each day when betting on dogs. These are frequently the most beneficial. Look for swollen lines as well. This implies that the public is so concentrated on one side of the line that it shifts, allowing you to purchase low on a dog and get “free points.” Let’s assume a favorite begins at -2.5 and the line jumps to -4.5 due to uneven activity. Because you are late to the party and are receiving the worst of the number, putting the points at -4.5 has little value.
3. Look out for Lines Reversing
Going against the grain is a terrific starting point, but it only gets you halfway. Being with smart money is another crucial factor. This entails aligning yourself with the sharps, who wager professionally and command the respect of the books. Reverse-line movement is one of the simplest techniques to find sharp action.
When the betting line shifts away from the popular side and toward the unpopular side, this is known as a reversal. Let’s imagine that Indiana is the favorite with 75% of the bets. Despite this, the Hoosiers have dropped from a -7 to a -6.5 or -6. This would indicate that the dog is snatching the points for pro money.
4. Use Lines That Don’t Make Sense to Your Advantage
It’s virtually always the case when something appears to be too wonderful to be true. In sports betting, that assertion will get you a long way. Look for and rely on lines that don’t make sense.
For instance, you could see that a 9-seed is favored over an 8-seed. Alternatively, a team with a worse win-loss record would be preferred over one with a better won-loss record. The public will rush to support the 8-seed or the team with a better record in both cases. Going the opposite way and supporting the side that “doesn’t make sense” is typically the better option.
5. Ken Pomeroy and his Technology Can Help you
For years, savvy college basketball gamblers have relied on Ken Pomeroy estimates. His sophisticated analytics are unrivaled in the industry and extremely precise. If a dog is earning 5 points but losing by 3 points according to Pomeroy, that’s a value worth betting on.
Perhaps a favorite is -2, but Pomeroy predicts a four-point victory. Take advantage of these opportunities. Pomeroy’s dream scenario is when his team is winning the game but scoring points like a dog. Look for the most significant differences and focus on them.